Person

Martha Karua

Original

Flickr : Martha Karua · Tom Zed · CC BY · Original

Person Active

Martha Karua

Age: 68 years
Born: Sep 22, 1957
Official · en: Martha Karua

Profiles and linksNo official profile link is published.

Social linksNo social profile link is published.

Leadership

Stale

The available record is stale; no current value is published.

automatic_authority_resolution

Power-role history

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

wikidata_scope_exhausted_non_authoritative

Candidacy

President of Kenya — 2027

Martha Karua · Candidate

Scheduled · Aug 10, 2027

Martha Karua official website

Declared

Independent media clusters

Martha Karua

President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled

Aug 9, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027

Independent clusters, last 30 days: 0
Independent clusters, days 31–180: 0
Confidence: 95.0%

DeclaredSource: Martha Karua official website · LINK-ONLY-NO-CONTENT-REUSE

Candidate–opponent strategy evidence

A directional comparison and factual public-message frame for each sourced pair in the same contest.

Preliminary evidence scenario, not a prediction or guarantee of an electoral result. It uses public sources, makes no causal claim and uses no demographic microtargeting. Methodology

There is not enough compatible, sourced evidence to publish a pairwise analysis for this contest yet.

Polls

Compatible series · Round — · Kenyan adults aged 18 and above · presidential_vote_all_adults

Latest poll: 1.0%
Poll trend: 0.0%
Best poll: 1.0%
Worst poll: 1.0%

Jul 15, 2026 · 1 Polls

Infotrak Research & Consulting

Poll share · Kenyan adults aged 18 and above · presidential_vote_all_adults

Published: Jul 15, 2026

Fieldwork: Jun 22, 2026 — Jun 26, 2026
Sample: 3,000
Methodology: Mixed mode · Source

David MaragaCandidate2.0%Original value: 2%Published precision: 0

Rigathi GachaguaUnresolved4.0%Original value: 4%Published precision: 0

OthersOther1.0%Original value: 1%Published precision: 0

Fred MatiangiCandidate12.0%Original value: 12%Published precision: 0

Babu OwinoUnresolved3.0%Original value: 3%Published precision: 0

Edwin SifunaCandidate12.0%Original value: 12%Published precision: 0

Kalonzo MusyokaUnresolved13.0%Original value: 13%Published precision: 0

William RutoCandidate32.0%Original value: 32%Published precision: 0

UndecidedUndecided18.0%Original value: 18%Published precision: 0

Martha KaruaCandidate1.0%Original value: 1%Published precision: 0

Prefer not to sayRefused3.0%Original value: 3%Published precision: 0

Forecasts

Martha Karua

Candidacy forecast · Preliminary · Round 1

80.0%

Martha Karua

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: 443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd6

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Dataset hash: 443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd67c5eb5d774b23ee2a836ee1ad9795c62Eliud Owalo official website David Maraga official campaign website Martha Karua official website Fred Matiang'i official campaign website

Martha Karua

Win forecast · Preliminary · Round 1

0.0%

Martha Karua

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: 443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd6

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Top issues

Stale

The available record is stale; no current value is published.

one_or_more_blocks_partial

Prediction components

Martha Karua

Candidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

80.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Candidacy score80.0%80.0%100%

Martha Karua

Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

0.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Campaign strengthNo data publishedNo data published0%

Candidacy score80.0%80.0%100%

Compatible poll shareNo data publishedNo data published50%

Economic contextNo data publishedNo data published0%

FundraisingNo data publishedNo data published0%

Ground organizationNo data publishedNo data published0%

Incumbency0.0%0.0%5%

Last comparable party voteNo data publishedNo data published25%

Media cluster share (30 days)No data publishedNo data published20%

Media coverageNo data publishedNo data published0%

Party strengthNo data publishedNo data published0%

Social sentimentNo data publishedNo data published0%

Polling momentumNo data publishedNo data published0%

Media profile

Approval · Favorability · Negativity

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

licensed_commons_asset

Media profile

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

licensed_commons_asset

Strengths · Weaknesses · Attacks · Controversies

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

licensed_commons_asset

Campaign signals

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

licensed_commons_asset

Electoral history

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

wikidata_election_items

Sources

1WikidataCC0-1.0 · Aug 9, 2026
2Wikimedia CommonsCC BY 2.0 · Aug 9, 2026
3Martha Karua official websiteLINK-ONLY-NO-CONTENT-REUSE · Aug 9, 2026
4David Maraga official campaign websiteLINK-ONLY-NO-CONTENT-REUSE · Aug 9, 2026
5Fred Matiang'i official campaign websiteLINK-ONLY-NO-CONTENT-REUSE · Aug 9, 2026
6Eliud Owalo official websiteLINK-ONLY-NO-CONTENT-REUSE · Aug 9, 2026
7Unicode Common Locale Data RepositoryUnicode-3.0 · Aug 9, 2026
8Infotrak Research & Consultingcitation_only · Jul 15, 2026