Kenya · Scheduled
Aug 10, 2027
{
"constitutionalArticles": [
136,
137,
138
],
"countyCount": 47,
"countyThresholdBps": 2500,
"countyThresholdMinimumCount": 24,
"nationalMajorityRequired": true,
"rounds": 2,
"runoffWithinDays": 30
}Candidate
Candidate
Candidate
Candidate
Candidate
A directional comparison and factual public-message frame for each sourced pair in the same contest.
Preliminary evidence scenario, not a prediction or guarantee of an electoral result. It uses public sources, makes no causal claim and uses no demographic microtargeting. Methodology
There is not enough compatible, sourced evidence to publish a pairwise analysis for this contest yet.
Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.
wikidata_election_itemsPresident of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Aug 10, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Aug 10, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Aug 9, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Aug 9, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Jul 27, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Jul 13, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Jun 16, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
May 4, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Jan 31, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
President of Kenya — 2027 · Scheduled
Jan 6, 2026 · Aug 10, 2027
Poll share · Kenyan adults aged 18 and above · presidential_vote_all_adults
David Maraga
Candidacy forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
2725fdaa651fbe3efaf1a27eec8ed62dPreliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Eliud Owalo
Candidacy forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd6Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Fred Matiangi
Candidacy forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd6Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Martha Karua
Candidacy forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd6Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Other / unresolved
Win forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
2725fdaa651fbe3efaf1a27eec8ed62dPreliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
David Maraga
Win forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
2725fdaa651fbe3efaf1a27eec8ed62dPreliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Eliud Owalo
Win forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
2725fdaa651fbe3efaf1a27eec8ed62dPreliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Fred Matiangi
Win forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
2725fdaa651fbe3efaf1a27eec8ed62dPreliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Martha Karua
Win forecast · Preliminary · Round 1
443620460a345cedb01a47d0ea48cbd6Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.
Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.
wikidata_election_itemsCandidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Candidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Candidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Candidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.
licensed_commons_assetCoverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.
licensed_commons_assetKenya News Agency reported on 27 July 2026 that Sifuna signalled an exit from ODM while declaring his presidential bid and was looking for a political vehicle.
Dataset hash: a2822e33a6d866526494eadd5e556db09b412302cea036c6e0c1bbe6f228a979Evidence: Sisi Ndio Sifuna campaignEvidence: Kenya News AgencyInfotrak measured Edwin Sifuna at 20% among respondents aged 18-26, his strongest age-group result, compared with 12% nationally.
Dataset hash: 20045c183e84c176ee8b8ab01a0b7a9f197431cafc874d68027808c7cdaa7b26Evidence: Infotrak Research & ConsultingIn the same national Infotrak voting-intention question, Sifuna had 12%, behind William Ruto at 32% and Kalonzo Musyoka at 13%, and level with Fred Matiangi at 12%.
Dataset hash: 20045c183e84c176ee8b8ab01a0b7a9f197431cafc874d68027808c7cdaa7b26Evidence: Infotrak Research & ConsultingCoverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.
licensed_commons_asset14
