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PIPPolitical Intelligence Platform
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PIP · Political Intelligence Platform

Methodology

How CiviOrg collects, resolves, publishes and labels global political data.

Coverage and status

Every M49 country or area has a public page. Regional M49 nodes are used as taxonomy. Empty collections and unavailable values remain explicit; they are never converted to zero.

Sources and licensing

Only sources with free access and commercial reuse rights are stored and redistributed. Material without clear reuse rights may contribute a link or signal, but its content is not copied.

Production source registry

Every endpoint is registered with its licence, reuse policy, host, adapter, language, refresh frequency and expiry window. A registered source is processed only while its endpoint and production adapter are enabled.

Active global integrations

Active integration

Unicode CLDR

Provides the M49 geography, containment taxonomy and localized territory names. Reusable snapshots are stored in full.

Unicode-3.0
Active integration

Wikidata

Provides CC0 identifiers and structured signals for jurisdictions, current leadership, parties and elections. Published assertions retain their provenance.

CC0-1.0
Active integration

CIA World Leaders

Provides a weekly current-leadership source. Only eligible United States government material not separately marked as protected is reused.

US-GOV-PD
Active integration

GDELT Project

Provides eligible electoral media signals. PIP stores the GDELT record, URL, date and derived clusters; protected article text is not copied.

GDELT-OPEN-DATA
Active integration

Wikimedia Commons

Provides portraits and logos discovered through Wikidata. Every file is checked individually and accepted only under Public Domain, CC0, CC BY or CC BY-SA terms.

PER-FILE

Registered historical datasets

Party Facts, Elections Global, Leaders Global, ParlGov and the World Bank Database of Political Institutions are recorded as licence-eligible historical sources. They are not presented as imported while their production adapters remain disabled.

Excluded sources

IPU Parline and ElectionGuide are excluded because their non-commercial or reuse restrictions do not satisfy PIP’s commercial-reuse policy. Their content is not copied into the redistributable database.

Temporal claims and conflicts

Sources produce dated assertions. Domain-specific authorities determine the canonical view at a chosen date. Incompatible assertions from the same authority are displayed together as a conflict instead of being guessed away.

Poll averages

Only polls for the same contest, round, population and scenario are combined. Undecided respondents remain explicit and figures are not silently renormalized.

weight = 2^(-age_days / 30) × clamp(√(sample_size / 1000), 0.5, 1.5)
poll_average = Σ(value × weight) / Σ(weight)

Preliminary forecasts

The first model combines candidacy status, independent media clusters, compatible polling, comparable party vote and incumbency. Every run preserves inputs, model version, uncertainty and dataset hash.

candidacy_score = clamp(base_status
  + min(20, 4 × ln(1 + independent_clusters_30d))
  + min(10, 2 × ln(1 + independent_clusters_31_180d)), 0, 99)

competitiveness = 0.50 × compatible_poll_share
  + 0.25 × last_comparable_party_vote
  + 0.20 × media_cluster_share_30d
  + 0.05 × incumbency_score

raw_win = candidacy_score / 100 × competitiveness

Portraits and logos

Media is accepted only under Public Domain, CC0, CC BY or CC BY-SA terms. A single content-addressed master is retained; responsive variants are generated on demand, with attribution preserved.