Libya · Planned

next Libyan presidential election

Name: next Libyan presidential election
Location: Libya

No scheduled election

Elections

Partial

Jurisdiction: Libya
Next national election: No scheduled election
Role: Presidential election · Head of state
Selection method: Other method
Status: Planned
Round: —

Dataset hash: 7db60d1b4d0460c9f3c479c4d565c83f4fe37cf106dd1174318a313b280b18a1Wikidata

Contest rounds

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

wikidata_election_items

Published contest rules

No additional contest rules are published.

Candidates

Aref Ali Nayed

Candidate

Affiliated party: Ihya Libya

Wikidata

Mentioned

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Candidate

Affiliated party: Popular Front for the Liberation of Libya

Wikidata

Mentioned

Election results

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

wikidata_election_items

Signal

Aref Ali Nayed

next Libyan presidential election · Planned

Aug 9, 2026

Independent clusters, last 30 days: 0
Independent clusters, days 31–180: 0
Confidence: 80.0%

MentionedSource: Wikidata · CC0-1.0

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

next Libyan presidential election · Planned

Aug 9, 2026

Independent clusters, last 30 days: 0
Independent clusters, days 31–180: 0
Confidence: 80.0%

MentionedSource: Wikidata · CC0-1.0

Polls

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

source_not_registered

Forecasts

Aref Ali Nayed

Candidacy forecast · Preliminary

5.0%

Aref Ali Nayed

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d2

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Dataset hash: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d222620122c66124773682a9b924909cb5Wikidata

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Candidacy forecast · Preliminary

5.0%

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d2

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Dataset hash: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d222620122c66124773682a9b924909cb5Wikidata

Other / unresolved

Win forecast · Preliminary

100.0%

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d2

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Dataset hash: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d222620122c66124773682a9b924909cb5Wikidata

Aref Ali Nayed

Win forecast · Preliminary

0.0%

Aref Ali Nayed

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d2

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Dataset hash: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d222620122c66124773682a9b924909cb5Wikidata

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Win forecast · Preliminary

0.0%

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Model: heuristic-v1 1.0.0
Forecast date: Aug 9, 2026
Seed: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d2

Preliminary, uncalibrated heuristic. This is not a poll or a prediction from a calibrated model.

Dataset hash: c839d58c1b78e1cb18e47072c651e7d222620122c66124773682a9b924909cb5Wikidata

Top issues

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

wikidata_election_items

Prediction components

Aref Ali Nayed

Candidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

5.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Candidacy score5.0%5.0%100%

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Candidacy forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

5.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Candidacy score5.0%5.0%100%

Other / unresolved

Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

100.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Other and unresolved100.0%100.0%100%

Aref Ali Nayed

Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

0.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Campaign strengthNo data publishedNo data published0%

Candidacy score5.0%5.0%100%

Compatible poll shareNo data publishedNo data published50%

Economic contextNo data publishedNo data published0%

FundraisingNo data publishedNo data published0%

Ground organizationNo data publishedNo data published0%

Incumbency0.0%0.0%5%

Last comparable party voteNo data publishedNo data published25%

Media cluster share (30 days)No data publishedNo data published20%

Media coverageNo data publishedNo data published0%

Party strengthNo data publishedNo data published0%

Social sentimentNo data publishedNo data published0%

Polling momentumNo data publishedNo data published0%

Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi

Win forecast · heuristic-v1 1.0.0

0.0%

ComponentInputApplied valueWeight

Campaign strengthNo data publishedNo data published0%

Candidacy score5.0%5.0%100%

Compatible poll shareNo data publishedNo data published50%

Economic contextNo data publishedNo data published0%

FundraisingNo data publishedNo data published0%

Ground organizationNo data publishedNo data published0%

Incumbency0.0%0.0%5%

Last comparable party voteNo data publishedNo data published25%

Media cluster share (30 days)No data publishedNo data published20%

Media coverageNo data publishedNo data published0%

Party strengthNo data publishedNo data published0%

Social sentimentNo data publishedNo data published0%

Polling momentumNo data publishedNo data published0%

Media profile

Approval · Favorability · Negativity

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

source_not_registered

Media profile

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

source_not_registered

Strengths · Weaknesses · Attacks · Controversies

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

source_not_registered

Campaign signals

Partial

Coverage is partial and no record is currently available for this section.

source_not_registered

Sources

1Party FactsCC0-1.0 · Aug 9, 2026
2WikidataCC0-1.0 · Aug 9, 2026
3Unicode Common Locale Data RepositoryUnicode-3.0 · Aug 9, 2026